Pabón Rodríguez, Félix M.

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    An estimate of the basic reproductive number, R0, for the 2015-2016 zika virus outbreak in Puerto Rico
    (2018-05) Pabón Rodríguez, Félix M.; Ríos Soto, Karen R.; College of Arts and Sciences - Sciences; Lorenzo González, Edgardo; Santana Morant, Dámaris; Ocasio González, Víctor A.; Department of Mathematics; Cedeño Maldonado, José R.
    In recent years, vector-borne diseases are taking serious attention from researchers and health specialist across the world. The emergence of vector-borne diseases, such as Chikungunya and Zika, coupled with outbreaks of both diseases in the Americas are of great interest to the scientific community since there is still very much to learn about their transmission, risks and effects. The Zika virus (ZIKV) is primarily transmitted by infected females Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, but there is also confirmed evidence that it can be transmitted directly (human to human) by sexual contacts and from mother to fetus. The apparent effects in the neurological system through the Guillain-Barré syndrome and the neonate microcephaly are of great concern. In Puerto Rico, 66% of the confirmed cases were females, and since the Zika disease is usually asymptomatic, pregnant women may not even know that they have the virus. At the end of December 2016, the Puerto Rico Department of Health estimated 37,500 cases. In this work, we focus on the 2015-2016 Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in Puerto Rico and use the data of confirmed Zika cases by laboratory obtained from the weekly reports published by the Puerto Rico Department of Health. To analyze the behavior of the Zika virus in Puerto Rico, a mathematical model that takes into account vector and sexual transmission is considered. Using the data and the epidemic model, the initial exponential growth rate of the epidemic is estimated, (defined as the force of infection), by different statistical methods, in order to estimate the basic reproductive number (R0) of the Zika epidemic in Puerto Rico. In addition, the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Generalized Least Squares (GLS) methods were considered to minimize the point-by-point distances between the predicted data by the mathematical model and the observed data for the Zika epidemic in Puerto Rico. The optimization procedure was performed to estimate the transmission rates Bh and k (that are unknown) in order to estimate and generate a distribution for R0, using the parameters from the model through a sampling process.