Ramírez-Rivera, Arlenys

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    Earthquake loss estimation in Puerto Rico from historical and potential earthquake scenarios
    (2016) Ramírez-Rivera, Arlenys; Huérfano-Moreno, Víctor A.; College of Arts and Sciences - Sciences; López-Venegas, Alberto; Suárez, Luis E.; Department of Geology; Acosta-Costa, Felipe J.
    Puerto Rico is located in the active seismic zone of the Eastern Caribbean where earthquakes are a potential threat for the island. In the past, several damaging earthquakes have affected Puerto Rico (1787, 1867, and 1918). The most recent of these events took place at the Mona Canyon in 1918 affecting all the western part of the island. The fact that a densely populated area is located within a seismically active zone with vulnerable structures could result in a tragic scenario. Unfortunately the size and location of an earthquake are unpredictable, however their potential damage can be estimated for mitigation purposes. Therefore loss estimations are needed in order to identify these possible impacts, minimize existing hazards, and improve safety. In this research the HAZUS-MH earthquake methodology was applied to study the impact of damaging historical and potential earthquake scenarios for two highly populated cities in Puerto Rico: San Juan and Mayaguez. The HAZUS Earthquake Model is a nationally applicable standardized methodology composed of six modules that estimates seismic hazard, building response, and direct and indirect losses resulting from potential earthquakes scenarios. Our results showed that the most damaging earthquake scenario had a total of $2,449.12 millions of dollars in economic losses and casualty estimates ranging from 602 to 807. The results of this investigation are of great practical interest in emergency management field as well as for the federal and local agencies along with decision makers to develop better mitigation strategies for Puerto Rico.