Trossi Torres, Gerardo

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Evaluation of streamflow forecast during flash flood events in Puerto Rico
(2023-07-24) Trossi Torres, Gerardo; Muñoz Barreto, Jonathan; College of Engineering; Morales Vélez, Alesandra C.; Tarafa Vélez, Pedro J.; Department of Civil Engineering; Tirado Corbalá, Rebecca
When studying water processes, understanding the hydrological cycle is vital. In addition, hydrological models can aid in predicting meteorological events, which is crucial for emergency management preparation. This study assessed the National Water Model v2.1, managed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, to determine its ability to produce dependable streamflow forecasts for Puerto Rico, which was added to the model in 2021. The study analyzed five significant rainfall events in 2022, including four flash floods and one hurricane, and examined rainfall estimations and streamflow forecasts. While the model had the correct tendency to produce streamflow forecasts, it needed more accuracy and precision due to inadequate rainfall estimates used to generate the forecast. Accurate data is essential for reliable streamflow forecasting using hydrological models. Although the model can be utilized to monitor streamflow, it is essential to note that slight over and underestimation can occur.