Malavé-Pérez, Luis G.

Publication Search Results

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1

Development of drought index for Puerto Rico's hydrologic conditions
(2020-07-24) Malavé-Pérez, Luis G.; Rivera-Santos, Jorge; College of Engineering; Silva-Araya, Walter F.; Segarra-García, Rafael; Department of Civil Engineering; Monroig-Saltar, Francisco M.
This study intends to develop a new drought index for Puerto Rico (PRDI) that combines relevant hydrological parameters necessary to obtain an appropriate drought indication value with a focus on hydrological conditions and water amount. The PRDI was developed to measure the drought for Carraizo watershed delimitation. The PRDI demonstrated an acceptable representation during the two biggest drought events (1994 and 2015) with exceptional and extreme drought, respectively. The second objective was to adjust a stochastic forecast model. This new PRDI was analyzed to determine the best stochastics ARIMA model to forecast the PRDI to the future. The ARIMA(2,0,1)(2,1,0) was selected for 3, 9-, and 12- while ARIMA(1,0,1)(3,1,0) was selected for 6 months. The PRDI forecast models can predict the drought values with totals errors between 20.3% to 45%. This index could significantly improve the decision-making process before, during and after considerable drought events occur.