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Porras Espinoza, Hernán

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    Tsunami impacts in Puerto Rico: Tectonic sources, propagation modeling, and run-up sensitivity to surface friction
    (2026-02-18) Porras Espinoza, Hernán; Huérfano Moreno, Víctor A.; College of Arts and Sciences - Sciences; Weil Machado, Ernesto F.; Armstrong Pacheco, Roy A.; Chacón Barrantes, Silvia; Department of Marine Sciences; Pérez Muñoz, Fernando
    Puerto Rico, is exposed to tsunamis, this scenario demands accurate characterization of seismogenic sources, rapid and realistic numerical modeling tools, and efficient response strategies. This thesis addresses the problem through three complementary approaches. The main active geological structures in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are identified and segmented using seismic, geological, geophysical, and geodetic data, with an evaluation of their tsunamigenic potential. An updated tectonic model is presented that incorporates detailed fault geometry and patterns of recent crustal deformation, providing a robust foundation for defining realistic tsunami scenarios. Also, the TsunamiBot is developed as an automated monitoring and response system that integrates real-time seismic detection, source parameter generation using the Okada model, GPU-accelerated simulations with Tsunami-HySEA, and immediate alert dissemination via the Telegram API. The system can execute complete simulations in under three minutes, enhancing response capacity for near-field threats. Finaly, the sensitivity of run-up, inundation extent, and hydrodynamic parameters to variations in surface friction is evaluated using spatially variable Manning’s n maps derived from high-resolution land use data. Tsunami-HySEA simulations are conducted for six coastal regions in western Puerto Rico, and a Random Forest model is applied to quantify the relative importance of friction, slope, and bathymetry in the dynamics of inundation. Results confirm that combining detailed tectonic characterization, a fully automated modeling and alert workflow, and a realistic representation of surface friction significantly improves the accuracy and operational value of tsunami models for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.