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dc.contributor.advisorCesaní-Vázquez, Viviana I.
dc.contributor.authorGómez-Villa, Carlos A.
dc.date.accessioned2018-11-28T17:29:11Z
dc.date.available2018-11-28T17:29:11Z
dc.date.issued2004
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11801/1541
dc.description.abstractThe traditional techniques used to evaluate investment alternatives do not appropriately capture the inherent uncertainty in multistage projects and do not allow for the consideration of managerial flexibility in the decision making process. In order to address these issues, recently, investments decisions have been modeled as real options based on an interesting analogy about financial options. This work presents the application of this methodology using two case studies. The first case deals with the development of a new drug in a pharmaceutical industry in which there is a great deal of uncertainty due to the technological risks involved. The second case study deals with the exploitation of an oil well which has significant economic risks due to the variation in the price of the barrels. The results shows that this methodology provides more precise estimates than conventional discounted-cash-flow techniques since it incorporates better the value of information and volatility involved.en_US
dc.description.abstractLas técnicas tradicionales para evaluar alternativas de inversión, no capturan apropiadamente la incertidumbre inherente al proyecto, así como tampoco incorporan la flexibilidad gerencial al modelo. Para corregir estas falencias, surge una metodología complementaria llamada Opciones Reales, la cual es una analogía a las opciones financieras. En este proyecto se evalúan dos casos de estudio. El primero se trata de el desarrollo de un nuevo medicamento en una farmaceútica; el cual lleva adherido una gran fuente de incertidumbre debido al riesgo tecnológico. El segundo se trata de la explotación de un pozo petrolero, el cual tiene gran riesgo económico debido a la variación en el precio del barril. Ambas alternativas de inversión fueron evaluadas con la regla del valor presente neto, simulación Montecarlo y la metodología de opciones reales. Al final se exponen los resultados de cada técnica, se analizan y se demuestra por qué las opciones reales dan un estimado más preciso.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipIndustrial Engineering Departmenten_US
dc.language.isoSpanishen_US
dc.subjectInvestment alternativesen
dc.subjectEconomic risksen
dc.titleUn caso de estudio para evaluar alternativas de inversión usando opciones realesen_US
dc.typeProject Reporten_US
dc.rights.licenseAll rights reserveden_US
dc.rights.holder(c)2004 Carlos Andrés Gómez Villaen_US
dc.contributor.committeeResto Batalla, Pedro
dc.contributor.committeeRivera Betancourt, Loida
dc.contributor.representativeRuiz Vargas, Yolanda
thesis.degree.levelM.E.en_US
thesis.degree.disciplineIndustrial Engineeringen_US
dc.contributor.collegeCollege of Engineeringen_US
dc.contributor.departmentDepartment of Industrial Engineeringen_US
dc.description.graduationYear2004en_US


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    Items included under this collection are theses, dissertations, and project reports submitted as a requirement for completing a degree at UPR-Mayagüez.

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