Figueroa Cólon, Tania
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Publication Landslide forecasting for Puerto Rico: Establishing hydro-meteorological thresholds for rainfall-induced mass wasting(2025) Figueroa Cólon, Tania; Hughes, Kenneth S.; College of Arts and Sciences - Sciences; Flores Mangual, Mario L.; Vanacore, Elizabeth A.; Geology; Pérez Muñoz, FernandoPuerto Rico experiences numerous landslides annually, primarily caused by intense and prolonged rainfall. They pose a significant risk to residents, many of whom live in landslide-prone areas. Monitoring soil hydraulic conditions before, during, and after rainfall events can provide insights into the conditions that trigger landslide activity on the island. This understanding can help establish antecedent soil moisture and precipitation intensity thresholds for rainfall-induced landslides in Puerto Rico. Data on rainfall, soil saturation, and groundwater pressure from 8 soil moisture monitoring stations across the island's mountainous areas, along with landslide reports, were used to optimize bilinear landslide-inducing thresholds based on rainfall and antecedent soil saturation conditions. The analysis employed the Threat Score, Precision, True Skill, and Optimal Point statistical metrics to evaluate both landslide reports and groundwater responses that may serve as a proxy for landsliding conditions at each monitoring station. Rainfall and antecedent soil saturation thresholds were established for stations with varying length of data record and located in distinct soil units. The results of this analysis show that for the Threat Score statistic and utilizing landslide reports as landslide proxies, the threshold for stations located in clayey soils was 62 mm of rainfall and 85% antecedent soil saturation, while for sandy soils resulted in 85 mm of rainfall and 54% soil saturation. These results contribute to developing an early landslide warning system for Puerto Rico.